The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast Update for the first quarter of 2011 today stating that the BC housing market is returning to a normal position after several years of volatility.

The BCREA is forecasting that Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales for British Columbia are expected to increase by 8.0% to 80,900 units in 2011 from the 74,640 units sold in 2010.

They are also predicting a further 4% increase in BC home sales in 2012, rising to 83,950 units from the expected 80,900 units in 2011.

“Employment and population growth will fuel consumer demand over the next two years. However, higher mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions for low equity home buyers will limit home sales to below the ten-year average of 87,600 units,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

For 2011, the BCREA is forecasting that the average MLS residential price will increase by 2.3% to $517,000, but remain relatively unchanged in 2012, declining by just 0.4% to $515,400 in British Columbia.

“Regional market differences continue in the province, with Vancouver trending into a seller’s market, while the Okanagan, Kootenay and Kamloops markets trend from a buyer’s market toward balanced conditions,” said Muir.

There are currently eleven (11) member boards represented by the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) including:

• Victoria – VREB
• Vancouver Island – VIREB
• Powell River Sunshine Coast – PRSCREB
• Greater Vancouver – REBGV
• Fraser Valley – FVREB
• Chilliwack and District – CADREB
• Kamloops and District
• Okanagan Mainline – OMREB
• South Okanagan – SOREB
• Kootenay – KREB
• BC Northern – BCNREB

The Northern Lights Real Estate Board (NLREB) amalgamated with the South Okanagan Real Estate Board (SOREB) on January 1, 2011. Data for SOREB in the table below includes transaction data from the former NLREB.

2011 BCREA – MLS Housing Sales Forecast for British Columbia:

“Regional market differences continue in the province, with Vancouver trending into a seller’s market, while the Okanagan, Kootenay and Kamloops markets trend from a buyer’s market toward balanced conditions,” said Muir.

“Total active residential listings in the province declined 14 per cent since last spring. However, the advances during the first two quarters of 2011,” added Muir.

2011 BCREA Q1 – MLS Home Sales and Price Forecast Summary:

• Victoria – VREB home sales are forecast to rise by 7.0% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.7%.
• Vancouver Island – VIREB home sales are forecast to rise by 3.8% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.6%.
• Powell River Sunshine Coast – PRSCREB home sales are forecast to Rise by 11.0% in 2011 with prices remaining stable.
• Greater Vancouver – REBGV home sales are forecast to rise by 11.0% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 2.4%.
• Fraser Valley – FVREB home sales are forecast to rise by 8.0% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.8%.
• Chilliwack and District – CADREB home sales are forecast to rise by 6.5% in 2011 with prices expected to decrease by 1.0%.
• Kamloops and District – home sales are forecast to rise by 6.1% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.4%.
• Okanagan Mainline – OMREB home sales are forecast to rise by 8.8% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.4%.
• South Okanagan – SOREB home sales are forecast to rise by 4.6% in 2011 with prices expected to decrease by 4.9%.
• Kootenay – KREB home sales are forecast to rise by 7.8% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.5%.
• BC Northern – BCNREB home sales are forecast to rise by 4.1% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 0.5%.
• BC Total – home sales are forecast to rise by 8.4% in 2011 with prices expected to increase by 2.3%.

British Columbia property values have reached an all time record, surpassing the $1.0 trillion mark for the first time in history according to the 2011 BC Assessment roll data.

A total of 1,902,875 properties were included in the 2011 BC Assessment Roll from 171 municipalities and jurisdictions in British Columbia.

BC Assessment uses current sales in a properties area between January 1 and October 31 to estimate the market value of a property on a valuation date of July 1 of that year and then sends the property owner an assessment notice in early January of the next year. Therefore the 2011 BC Assessment roll figures are estimates of a property’s market value on July 1, 2010 based on property sales in the properties area between January 1, 2010 and October 31, 2010.

Changes in residential property assessments reflect local real estate market conditions and movement, which can vary greatly across British Columbia municipalities and jurisdictions.

For 2011, the top-five British Columbia municipalities for residential assessment increases were Mackenzie at 21.25%, Chetwynd 18.96%, Richmond 17.14%, Fraser Lake 15.75% and Fort St. James with 15.44%.

Each one of the top-ten BC municipalities had assessment increases in excess of 10% while all those in the top-twenty were above 7% for 2011.

The following table shows the top 20 municipal assessment increases in residential property market values from the 2011 BC Assessment Roll as a percentage increase over the 2010 market movement figures in British Columbia.

2011 BC Assessment – Top 20 Residential Assessment Increases in BC:

According to BC Assessment, “the real estate market creates the value and BC Assessment reports it” in British Columbia.

BC Assessment released their 2011 Assessment Roll figures on January 4, 2011.

The assessments are based on a market value approach with a valuation date of July 1, 2010. The figures are based on sales in a property owner’s area from January 1, 2010 to October 31, 2010.

The following table shows the estimated percentage of residential market movement (% Gain/Loss) between the 2011 Assessment Roll and the 2010 Assessment Roll for every city, municipality, and jurisdiction in the province of British Columbia, Canada.

2011 BC Assessment – Estimated % Market Movement for BC Cities:

According to BC Assessment:

• For the first time in British Columbia’s history, the value of all real estate on the annual provincial assessment roll has surpassed $1.0 trillion.
• The actual (total) value of the 2011 assessment roll is $1,043,127,129,141 a increase of eight per cent over the 2010 roll total value of $970 billion.
• BC Assessment is sending 2,066,261 assessment notices to British Columbia property owners, an increase of 5.5 per cent from last year’s total of 1,957,440. (Note: Several properties have multiple owners who may each receive an assessment notice.)

BC Assessment released their 2010 Assessment Roll figures on January 4, 2010.

The assessments are based on a market value approach with a valuation date of July 1, 2009. The figures are based on sales in a property owner’s area from January 1, 2009 to October 31, 2009.

The following table shows the estimated percentage of residential market movement between the 2010 Assessment Roll and the 2009 Assessment Roll for every city, municipality, and jurisdiction in the province of British Columbia, Canada.

2010 BC Assessment – Estimated % Market Movement:

According to BC Assessment:

• The total value of the 2010 Assessment Roll is $969 billion, an increase of 1.7 per cent over the 2009 Roll total value of $953 billion.
• 1,883,669 properties were valued for the 2010 Roll, compared to 1,856,687 on the 2009 revised Roll.
• BC Assessment sent out 1,957,400 assessment notices to British Columbia property owners, a slight increase from last year’s total of 1,920,826. (Several properties have multiple owners who may each receive an assessment notice.)
• In British Columbia, 87.6 per cent per cent of all properties are classified with some residential component.